RAY'S RHETORIC
the blog of novelist Ray Cattie.
Sunday, November 9, 2025
I and Pangur Bán (Again)
Wednesday, October 1, 2025
Friday, August 29, 2025
Gloucester
“Gloucester” is written, performed, & produced by B.C., the classic rock duo hailing from Delco, Pennsylvania. B.C. is Bill Blessington & Ray Cattie.
© 2025 B.C.
Saturday, August 2, 2025
(Alien) Life Redux, Etc: What Exactly Are the Odds?
(Alien) Life Redux, Etc: What Exactly Are the Odds?
This is an essay that I republish every once in a while, usually after seeing some alien-related copy somewhere on the ‘net. This time, I have two additional pieces of evidence (ok, maybe not evidence, but two strongly supportive quotes by an American and a British scientist who definitely check off some of the ethos boxes for credibility. Onward:
It's a romantic notion- alien life- but maybe it's just that- a notion. And here is why I'm starting to think that maybe there really is no life anywhere else in the universe:
Pure probability.
A monkey at a typewriter has a one in 15 billion chance in typing the word "banana" in its lifetime. Why so little a chance? Well, let's say a typewriter has 50 keys, and each key has an equal chance of being pressed by our monkey friend. The chance that the first letter typed would be a "B" is 1/50. The chance that the second letter typed would be an "A" is also 1/50, and on and on.
Statistics tell us that the chance of the first six letters spelling "banana" is:
(1/50) × (1/50) × (1/50) ×
(1/50) × (1/50) × (1/50) =
1/15,625,000,000,
or roughly a one in 15 billion chance.
And that's for only six things that have to happen just to spell the word "banana."
Now, let's conservatively say that 10 things have to line up out of a 1,000 for life to occur (way, way conservative). That would be:
(1/1,000) x (1/1,000) x (1/1,000) x
(1/1,000) x (1/1,000) x (1/1,000) x
(1/1,000) x (1/1,000) x (1/1,000) x
(1/1,000)= 1/1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 or roughly a 1 in one thousand billion billion billionth of a chance.
When I hear someone say that the odds of there NOT being life elsewhere are very minute, I think of the above formula, and I think that it might in fact be the opposite.
Before you launch into how big the universe is, think about the numbers above, the tornado in a junkyard, and the unabridged dictionary explosion, and think that probably of those elements that need to come together for life to happen, such as the numbers in the above monkey model, are probably more like a hundred thousand things out of a million, as opposed to ten out of a thousand.
As I read back my essay, I realize that the proofs I have presented actually work against me as well—that just because the universe is that big, with that many elements needing to come together at one specific point in time—doesn’t mean that it’s impossible. Unlikely, improbable, incredible—most definitely. Impossible, no.
Yes, these are the things that I think of for inspiration.
Strangely, they work...
© Ray Cattie
Monday, April 28, 2025
Magic Node
Sunday, April 20, 2025
Upcoming Novels

Monday, February 17, 2025
Why 2025 is Better Than 2018

The city held it's breath from the first playoff game through the end of the Super Bowl, as their backup quarterback, Nick Foles, had become the starting quarterback several weeks before the playoffs began when Eagles starting quarterback Carson Wentz went down with a torn ACL in a division-clenching win against the Los Angeles Rams. Nick Foles's Eagles then went on to clinch a first round bye, and then home field advantage throughout the playoffs, with late season wins, to finish with a team-best record of 13-3.
This current (2025) Eagles Super Bowl win, however, was better than 2018… ‘18 was lightning in a bottle, a necessary and much appreciated popping of their cherry; the ‘25 team, on the other hand, was built for this, and has the potential to become a dynasty.
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| 2018- lightning in a bottle. |

Monday, December 16, 2024
Foreshadowing vs Deja Vu
On the literary vs the real life, and which is which?

Physical or direct foreshadowing, the “smoking gun,” as it is known in the trade, is actually a narrative rule that states, “If the author draws attention to a smoking gun in chapter one, it needs to be relevant in chapter 33.”
Otherwise, it’s an unnecessary detail that serves as nothing but a distraction. And that comes across as an obvious attempt at sleight of hand by the author, and no reader is paying to be fooled, at least accidentally.


You can also have symbolic foreshadowing, where for instance a character has a series of dark foreboding dreams and then later something dark happens. Or perhaps a character has an item early on, like Chekhov's Gun, but the gun isn't used in a literal way, but rather symbolically. For instance, someone has something bad happen to them later, after seeing the gun. A lot of it is dependent on the author-- much like contextual or authorial symbolism, it only make sense in the context if the author tells you it makes sense, and how it makes sense. Almost in a "sympathetic magic" kind of way: it works because we believe it works. That doesn't necessarily make it everyone's reality, though.



Tuesday, December 10, 2024
Celtic Wedding Poem
“The timing of our visit here
“To win the heart of one so
“Is written gently on our hearts
“A perfect day to make a start—"
“I wonder who the noise is for?
“And wondering, I pause to think of
“Why you stand upon my brink?”
Myrddin:
“We seek the one who’s tall and fair,
“With jade-green eyes and golden hair.
“Open now and end this game—”
Gwenhwyfar:
“The one you seek is here for sure
“But cannot face the open door.
“Try again some other day;
“Leave us be and go away—”
Myrddin:
“The game is up, the bride-price paid,
“A groom awaits his loving maid’.
“Unlock your heart and let us pass,
“Before the sun too high does pass—“
Arthur (in mock-frustration at this point):
“I am Arthur, come to call
“Stout of heart behind this wall.








