“Gloucester” is written, performed, & produced by B.C., the classic rock duo hailing from Delco, Pennsylvania. B.C. is Bill Blessington & Ray Cattie.
© 2025 B.C.
the blog of novelist Ray Cattie.
“Gloucester” is written, performed, & produced by B.C., the classic rock duo hailing from Delco, Pennsylvania. B.C. is Bill Blessington & Ray Cattie.
© 2025 B.C.
(Alien) Life Redux, Etc: What Exactly Are the Odds?
This is an essay that I republish every once in a while, usually after seeing some alien-related copy somewhere on the ‘net. This time, I have two additional pieces of evidence (ok, maybe not evidence, but two strongly supportive quotes by an American and a British scientist who definitely check off some of the ethos boxes for credibility. Onward:
It's a romantic notion- alien life- but maybe it's just that- a notion. And here is why I'm starting to think that maybe there really is no life anywhere else in the universe:
Pure probability.
A monkey at a typewriter has a one in 15 billion chance in typing the word "banana" in its lifetime. Why so little a chance? Well, let's say a typewriter has 50 keys, and each key has an equal chance of being pressed by our monkey friend. The chance that the first letter typed would be a "B" is 1/50. The chance that the second letter typed would be an "A" is also 1/50, and on and on.
Statistics tell us that the chance of the first six letters spelling "banana" is:
(1/50) × (1/50) × (1/50) ×
(1/50) × (1/50) × (1/50) =
1/15,625,000,000,
or roughly a one in 15 billion chance.
And that's for only six things that have to happen just to spell the word "banana."
Now, let's conservatively say that 10 things have to line up out of a 1,000 for life to occur (way, way conservative). That would be:
(1/1,000) x (1/1,000) x (1/1,000) x
(1/1,000) x (1/1,000) x (1/1,000) x
(1/1,000) x (1/1,000) x (1/1,000) x
(1/1,000)= 1/1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 or roughly a 1 in one thousand billion billion billionth of a chance.
When I hear someone say that the odds of there NOT being life elsewhere are very minute, I think of the above formula, and I think that it might in fact be the opposite.
Before you launch into how big the universe is, think about the numbers above, the tornado in a junkyard, and the unabridged dictionary explosion, and think that probably of those elements that need to come together for life to happen, such as the numbers in the above monkey model, are probably more like a hundred thousand things out of a million, as opposed to ten out of a thousand.
As I read back my essay, I realize that the proofs I have presented actually work against me as well—that just because the universe is that big, with that many elements needing to come together at one specific point in time—doesn’t mean that it’s impossible. Unlikely, improbable, incredible—most definitely. Impossible, no.
Yes, these are the things that I think of for inspiration.
Strangely, they work...
© Ray Cattie
The city held it's breath from the first playoff game through the end of the Super Bowl, as their backup quarterback, Nick Foles, had become the starting quarterback several weeks before the playoffs began when Eagles starting quarterback Carson Wentz went down with a torn ACL in a division-clenching win against the Los Angeles Rams. Nick Foles's Eagles then went on to clinch a first round bye, and then home field advantage throughout the playoffs, with late season wins, to finish with a team-best record of 13-3.
This current (2025) Eagles Super Bowl win, however, was better than 2018… ‘18 was lightning in a bottle, a necessary and much appreciated popping of their cherry; the ‘25 team, on the other hand, was built for this, and has the potential to become a dynasty.
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2018- lightning in a bottle. |
On the literary vs the real life, and which is which?
Physical or direct foreshadowing, the “smoking gun,” as it is known in the trade, is actually a narrative rule that states, “If the author draws attention to a smoking gun in chapter one, it needs to be relevant in chapter 33.”
Otherwise, it’s an unnecessary detail that serves as nothing but a distraction. And that comes across as an obvious attempt at sleight of hand by the author, and no reader is paying to be fooled, at least accidentally.
You can also have symbolic foreshadowing, where for instance a character has a series of dark foreboding dreams and then later something dark happens. Or perhaps a character has an item early on, like Chekhov's Gun, but the gun isn't used in a literal way, but rather symbolically. For instance, someone has something bad happen to them later, after seeing the gun. A lot of it is dependent on the author-- much like contextual or authorial symbolism, it only make sense in the context if the author tells you it makes sense, and how it makes sense. Almost in a "sympathetic magic" kind of way: it works because we believe it works. That doesn't necessarily make it everyone's reality, though.
As we've stated previously in this blog, humans have logic, or logos, in common with each other. Our big brains are very good at solving logical problems. So much so that we use logos to make effective arguments when we try to persuade or convince someone to believe what we want them to believe.
We do have other things in common as well. Such as emotion, or pathos. Again, we all have it-- the problem with pathos as the basis of an argument, however, is that among other things we don't all respond to emotional cues in the same way.
Thus, pathos is not a reliable root for an argument, outside of using it to "season" our argument once we have established its parameters. Like a stew, if you will: meat and potatoes-- the logical argument, and then the salt and pepper-- the emotional seasoning for our argument. And much like a stew, a little seasoning goes a long way; a lot of seasoning can ruin the meal.
…you realize that thesticksthatarescatteredonthatpartoftheforest'sfloorareonthethick sidesowhateversnappedthatstickbehindyouhastobesubstantiallybiggerthanasquirrelor othersmalleranimalinfactitwouldhavetobethesizeof— and you're dead.
Your logic turned out to be right-- the bear coming up behind you was significantly larger than a squirrel, and with one swing of its claw-laden paw it sent you to your death.
As you can see by that scenario, our logic didn't serve us too well in that case. It was correct, but it was far too slow to allow us to come to the conclusion that we needed to run in that situation, and quickly.
If not logic, what? This is where pathos, or the emotional response-- specifically the startle reflex-- saves the day.
This is also known as fight or flight, which is a reflex that immediately puts our bodies in the position to fight, or to run, with no logical thought pulling the strings. It's what’s called a hard-wired (non-learned) instinct.
Do we still have them today? Sure, you betcha. You're crossing a busy street, only you didn't see the car speeding up the inside lane, momentarily hidden from your view. The car honks its horn, scaring you and causing you to startle, saving your life.
Beyond the startle reflex, we have an aversion to things that can be harmful to our survival ("our" also mean "as a species"). For example, we have an aversion to cannibalism. Such subject is actually a "taboo," that is to say in addition to being illegal, it goes against our survival (as a species) instinct and mentally and physically repulses us.
As does mating with people (and things) that cannot produce a viable offspring. Romantic love with a sibling? Taboo. Romantic love with a pit bull? Again, taboo. A vacuum cleaner? Taboo. Each of those examples goes against the survival of the species. How many generations would there be to extinction if we didn't have this aversion towards mating with people and things that cannot produce viable progeny? I'd bet the ranch on one... maybe two at the outside.
Killing also breaks that hard-wired survival instinct. It is incredibly hard for one human to kill another human on purpose. That's part of what basic training does for soldiers-- it helps them to get past the "taboo" of killing other humans where it might be “necessary,” such as in the case of war.
We are literally built with this hard-wired system deeply ingrained in us. The question then becomes, with such an autonomic defense system in place, how then are we able to consciously do things that otherwise put our lives in jeopardy, such as smoke, overeat, drive while intoxicated? If our autopilot is smart enough to keep us out of the line of fire, how then is our logical brain unable to do this job, or at least make the job easier?
© Ray Cattie
"Haunting" actually has a couple of meanings. First, it can mean that something comes across as particularly poignant: "That piece of music is very haunting." Meaning, it evokes a profound meaning within ourselves that touches us at a deeper level.
(why all of the "quotes" and the use of italics? It's because the words and/or phrases I quoted or italicized don't necessarily have a clear meaning, or that their meaning(s) are controversial to the point where just as many people believe as disbelieve their purported definition. So I err on the side of caution)
Science tells that generally speaking places that creep us out, make us feel uneasy, or just plain scare us, have a very sound explanation, literally. Infrasound, or sound that is just below conscious human perception at around 19 hertz, can't be heard but apparently can still be felt by the body, and in fact is directly linked to feelings of discomfort, uneasiness, fear, and even nausea. Recognize the haunted house symptoms?
Scientists have investigated for this 19 hertz frequency in alleged haunted houses and have found-- you guessed it-- it is present in over 90% of the cases investigated. Those house settling sounds-- the creaking, the pipe noises, the moaning sounds-- all of it (or at least 90% of it)-- fall into that infrasound frequency. Quite eye-opening, no?
Does the imagination take us on journeys? Yes it does, even though sometimes we know the rational explanation. I'm actually here to propose yet another definition of what a haunting is-- the mind.
I have come to believe a haunting-- in its simplest of forms-- is a lingering thought of a person. Not a voluntary thought, mind you, but a thought that pops into existence regardless of our attempts to keep it at bay, and one that we consciously have to banish. It comes on its own, but requires a purposeful mental process to banish it.
Anywho-- those are my thoughts on "haunting," and/or being "haunted."
© Ray Cattie